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- This Week in Financial Markets: 12.10.23
This Week in Financial Markets: The Top 5
1. Solid Jobs Print:
*NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE +199K M/M; EST. +185K
Friday’s monthly jobs number came in above expectations with private payrolls increasing a healthy 150,000. With many investors afraid of “too strong” of prints due to the likely effect of causing yields to rise - the S&P 500 still rallied +0.43% on Friday, likely seeing this as a ‘goldilocks’ print. Not too cold, not too hot.
2. S&P 500 Bullish Seasonality
Equities continue to track the average its seasonality line (since 1990). Seasonality points at one more pullback in the near-term (look out for Fed on 12/13) before a Santa-rally to end the year.
3. India Stocks Hit New High
Equities in India have hit a new all-time high (priced in Rupees). The US Dollar has weakened in the past few weeks as the market has begun to expect rate cuts from the Fed - which has fueled emerging market equity strength. India’s stock market just surpassed a valuation mark of $4T. Keep in mind, AAPL is still near $3T.
4. Bitcoin New 52-Week High
Fed rate cuts have rapidly become expected by the market in 2024. Fixed income markets are now pricing nearly 4 rate cuts from the Fed next year. The combination of expected rate cuts increasing investor confidence and a (potential) coming ETF, has pushed bitcoin to its highest level since April 2022.
5. Looking Ahead: Keep an Eye on Job Openings
Despite the strong jobs number - JOLTS (job openings) continue to fall. This is from a very high level and is not a major warning sign just set. However, until job openings start to steady-out, they represent a small crack in the labor market that is slowly growing. Keep an eye out here!
Looking Ahead:
Fed on Wednesday
CPI on Tuesday
Treasury bond auctions Mon/Tues
Stock buyback blackout window until January 19th
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